Vietnam’s Agricultural Export Market 2025: A Mid-term Analysis and Strategic Outlook

Executive Summary

The first half of 2025 presents a paradoxical picture for Vietnam’s Agricultural Export Market 2025. On the surface, the industry achieved record-breaking figures, with an export turnover of 33.84 billion, a 15.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and an impressive trade surplus of 9.83 billion.[1], [2] However, this impressive growth masks a deep divergence among different commodity sectors. The growth was primarily driven by a price boom in key products like coffee and cashews, concealing inherent weaknesses and serious challenges in other critical areas such as rice and fruits and vegetables.

The surge in value for coffee (up 67.5%) and cashews (up 20.4%) was the main driver, but this growth was based on a decline or negligible increase in volume, indicating a heavy reliance on global commodity price cycles.[3], [4] In contrast, the rice industry faced a price crisis as the average export price plummeted by 18.4%, causing turnover to drop by 12.2% despite an increase in export volume.[4] The fruit and vegetable sector also saw an 8.4% decline due to changes in import policies in the Chinese market.[3], [4]

Against this backdrop, the AFF sector faces a series of challenges in the second half of the year: the risk of the US imposing “overlapping tariffs” on key seafood products like shrimp [3]; increasingly stringent technical barriers from China [3], [5]; the unresolved IUU “yellow card” from the EU [6]; and pressure from rising logistics costs and exchange rate fluctuations.[7]

In response, the Government and the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment have outlined a decisive action plan for the latter half of the year, aiming for a baseline export turnover of 65 billion and an ambitious target of 70 billion.[3], [6], [8] This strategy focuses on three main pillars: stabilizing the supply chain, capitalizing on trade policy opportunities, and boosting exports from the beginning of the third quarter.[9] Specific solutions include market diversification, enhancing added value through deep processing, and targeted policy interventions.

This report concludes that the 65 billion target is feasible but requires flawless execution of the strategy for the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the 70 billion target remains a significant challenge, heavily dependent on favorable external market conditions. The success of Vietnam’s Agricultural Export Market 2025 will not only be measured by the final turnover figure but also by its ability to transition from a growth model based on price and volume to a more sustainable one based on quality, technology, and added value.

1. Performance of Vietnam’s Agricultural Export Market 2025 (H₁)

A deep dive into the AFF export results for the first half of 2025 reveals a complex picture, where impressive macroeconomic achievements are built on an uneven foundation. Growth was not widespread across all commodity groups but was concentrated in a few sectors benefiting from specific market factors, while others struggled against significant headwinds.

1.1. Overall Achievements: A Record-Breaking Half-Year

At the macro level, Vietnam’s AFF sector had a particularly successful start to 2025, setting new records and making a significant contribution to national economic stability.

Total AFF export turnover in the first six months reached $33.84 billion, a strong growth of 15.5% compared to the same period in 2024.[1], [2], [4] This figure indicates that the industry is on track to meet its ambitious goals for the year. This growth demonstrates not only resilience but also the sector’s ability to adapt to global economic fluctuations.

The most outstanding highlight was the industry’s trade surplus. With a surplus value of 9.83 billion, an increase of 16.5% year-on-year, the AFF sector continues to affirm its role as a crucial pillar for the national trade balance.[7] This not only brings in valuable foreign currency but also contributes to stabilizing the exchange rate and the macroeconomy.

The diversity of the export product portfolio is also noteworthy. In the first half of the year, 28 items achieved an export turnover of over 1 billion, accounting for 91.7% of the country’s total export turnover. Among them, 9 items exceeded 5 billion in exports, showcasing the depth and scale of Vietnam’s production and export capacity.[10]

1.2. In-depth Sector Analysis: Leaders and Laggards

A closer look at the aggregate numbers reveals a clear performance gap between commodity groups. The overall industry growth was not a tide that lifted all boats but rather the result of strong breakthroughs by a few sectors, while others faced difficulties.

High-Growth Group (Mainly Price-Driven):

• Coffee: The brightest star of the sector in the first half of the year. Export turnover reached 5.45 billion, an astonishing 67.5% increase in value. Notably, this growth was achieved with only a 5.3% increase in volume, indicating that the main driver was a 59.1% surge in the average export price, reaching over 5,700/ton.[1], [3], [4] This was a result of global supply shortages and strong demand from major markets.
• Cashews: Turnover reached $2.36 billion, a 20.4% increase in value despite a slight 2.7% decrease in export volume. The decisive factor was a 23.8% increase in the average price.[3], [4]
• Pepper: A similar story unfolded with a turnover of $859.6 million, a 35.7% increase in value on the back of a 12.4% decrease in volume, thanks to a sharp 54.8% rise in export prices.[4]

Stable Growth Group:

• Wood & Wood Products: Remained the largest export category, reaching 8.21 billion, with steady growth of 8.9% year-on-year.3“>[3], [1], [3], [4]
• Rubber: Reached $1.27 billion, a 14.4% increase in value. This sector also benefited from a 22.4% price increase, which offset a 6.5% decline in volume.[4]

Struggling Sectors:

• Fruits & Vegetables: A cause for concern. Turnover decreased by 8.4% to $3.05 billion.[3], [4] This decline was almost entirely due to fluctuations in the Chinese market. The only bright spot was durian, with fresh and frozen export turnover tripling compared to the same period in 2024.[3]
• Rice: Faced a severe price crisis. Although export volume increased by 7.6% to 4.9 million tons, turnover fell by 12.2% to $2.54 billion. The reason was a sharp 18.4% drop in the average export price.[4], [11], [12]

This divergence reveals a core paradox: the impressive 15.5% growth of the entire sector is heavily dominated by the sharp price increases of coffee, cashews, and pepper. Without this price effect, the overall growth figure would be significantly lower. Sectors like rice and rubber actually saw a decline in export volume. This indicates that the current growth is not primarily driven by increased production or market share gains but is dependent on external commodity price cycles. This dependency creates a vulnerability. If the prices of these commodities correct downwards in the second half of 2025, the industry’s ability to achieve its ambitious targets will be severely impacted. Therefore, the long-term strategy of shifting from “increasing volume to enhancing value” [6], [13] is not just a goal but an urgent requirement to mitigate the risk of export portfolio volatility from price fluctuations.

Table 1: Export Results of Key AFF Sectors (First 6 Months of 2025 vs. First 6 Months of 2024)

Source: Compiled from data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment.[1], [3], [4]

1.3. Navigating the Global Landscape of Vietnam’s Agricultural Export Market 2025

Market analysis reveals shifts in trade dynamics and dependencies. While developed markets showed strong growth, the Chinese market presented a much more complex picture.

Strong Growth in Developed Markets:

• United States: Remained the largest single market, accounting for 21.1% of market share. Export turnover to this market grew strongly by 16%.[4] It is the main destination for wood products (accounting for 55.6% of the wood sector’s market share), seafood, coffee, and pepper.[3], [4]
• EU: Showed particularly impressive growth, with total export turnover to Europe increasing by 46.3% in the first half of the year.[4] This is especially noteworthy for the fruit and vegetable sector, where exports to the EU soared by 56.3% in June alone.[14]
• Japan: A stable and high-value market, with export turnover increasing by 25.5%.[4]

The China Puzzle: A Market in Transition:

• Total export turnover to China, the second-largest market, was nearly flat, with only a slight decrease of 0.7%.[4]
• However, this aggregate figure conceals a strong trade restructuring. Exports of fruits and vegetables dropped sharply by 35.1% and wood products by 20.2%.[4], [15]
• Conversely, exports of other items to China soared: Seafood (+53.7%), Cashews (+41.2%), and Rubber (+34% in 5 months).[4]

This contrast indicates a “bifurcation” in trade relations with China, between quality-based and quantity-based products. The data shows that China is simultaneously sharply reducing imports of some Vietnamese agricultural products while significantly increasing others. The rejected or reduced products (like fruits and vegetables) are those subject to new, stricter standards on quality, safety, and traceability, such as the cadmium testing requirement for durian.[3], [5] Meanwhile, the products experiencing growth are often processed goods or raw materials (cashews, rubber, seafood) where standards may differ or Vietnamese suppliers have successfully met them. This is not a general decline in demand from China but a deliberate shift. China is no longer an “easy” market for cheap, inconsistent-quality products. It is rapidly evolving into a high-standard market, similar to the EU or Japan. This implies that Vietnamese exporters who cannot adapt to these higher standards will be excluded from the Chinese market for high-value items like fresh fruit. The long-term strategy must include significant investment in quality management, traceability, and processing to meet China’s new requirements, treating it as a developed market, not a developing one. This is a fundamental strategic reassessment.

Table 2: AFF Export Results in Major Markets (First 6 Months of 2025 vs. First 6 Months of 2024)

Source: Compiled and calculated based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment.[4]

2. Headwinds and Challenges in Vietnam’s Agricultural Export Market 2025

After reviewing performance, an analysis of risks and obstacles is necessary for a comprehensive view. Vietnam’s Agricultural Export Market 2025 is facing a range of significant challenges that could hinder the achievement of its annual goals.

2.1. Geopolitical Pressures and Trade Policies

• Threat of US Tariffs: This is a major storm cloud hanging over the seafood industry. The possibility of the US imposing “overlapping tariffs”—combining countervailing duties, anti-dumping duties, and anti-subsidy duties—on key products like shrimp poses an existential threat to exporters.[3] This is particularly dangerous as the US is one of the top two markets for Vietnamese seafood.[4]
• China’s Non-Tariff Barriers: The shift in the Chinese market is a top challenge. The application of new food safety regulations, such as mandatory testing for cadmium and auramine O in durian, has caught many exporters unprepared.[3] This is part of a broader trend of China tightening import standards for fruits and vegetables.[5], [16]
• EU’s IUU “Yellow Card”: The persistent “yellow card” for illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a major obstacle, preventing the full maximization of the EU market’s potential for the seafood industry.[6] Failure to resolve this issue could lead to a “red card,” which is equivalent to a trade ban.

2.2. Sector-Specific Crises: Market Dynamics and Price Volatility

• Global Rice Market Downturn: The 18.4% drop in rice prices in the first half of the year was the result of a perfect storm of global factors: increased world supply, the return of major exporters like India, and reduced purchases by key importers like the Philippines and Indonesia due to high domestic inventories and price control measures.[7], [11], [12], [17] This external market pressure is largely beyond Vietnam’s control.
• The Durian Dilemma: Despite a threefold increase in export volume, the industry faces significant internal challenges that limit its potential. These include a lack of official guidance on how to meet China’s new chemical testing standards and a severe shortage of cold chain infrastructure (cold storage, freezing). This shortage prevents exporters from preserving fruit during peak harvest season and expanding into the lucrative frozen market.[3]

2.3. The Rising Tide of Operational Costs

• Logistics Bottlenecks: Escalating logistics costs, which can account for up to 30% of the final product price, are severely eroding the profitability of all exporters.[7] This makes Vietnamese products less competitive on the international stage.
• Adverse Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The strengthening of the US dollar (to over 26,400 VND/USD) increases the cost of imported inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, machinery) while reducing the net profit in VND for exporters.[7]
• Compliance Costs: Meeting the increasingly strict sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards of markets like the EU, which has increased pesticide residue checks to 50% for some products, requires significant investment in technology, processes, and certification, adding to the cost burden.[7]

These challenges are not isolated. An external pressure (like new Chinese regulations) is exacerbated by an internal weakness (lack of cold storage). A global market condition (high logistics costs) makes a trade policy threat (US tariffs) more dangerous to profitability. For example, the durian case shows that China’s external demand for higher standards [3] meets Vietnam’s internal lack of investment in processing and preservation.[3] The result is a bottleneck that prevents the industry from fully capitalizing on a major opportunity. Similarly, for the seafood industry, the external threat of US tariffs [3] is compounded by the internal challenge of the EU’s IUU yellow card.[6] This means the industry is fighting on its two most important fronts simultaneously. Therefore, a successful strategy for the second half of the year cannot address these issues in isolation but requires an integrated approach. Solving logistics issues helps mitigate the impact of tariffs. Investing in processing technology helps meet the standards of both China and the EU. Policy solutions must be comprehensive and address the entire value chain.

3. Strategic Roadmap for the Second Half of 2025: From Ambition to Execution

To address the identified challenges and ensure the achievement of the 2025 export targets, the Government and relevant agencies have outlined a comprehensive strategic roadmap. This plan not only focuses on resolving immediate issues but also lays the groundwork for sustainable future development.

3.1. The Government’s Three-Pillar Strategy

The high-level strategic framework proposed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE), specified in Decision No. 681/QD-BNNMT and Official Dispatch No. 79/CD-TTg, forms the backbone of the efforts for the second half of the year.[8], [18] This plan is based on three main pillars [9], [19]:

1. Stabilizing the Supply Chain: Focusing on developing strong, certified raw material zones and perfecting the system of granting codes for growing areas and packing facilities. The goal is to ensure a stable supply of high-quality, traceable products that meet the requirements of the most demanding markets.
2. Leveraging Trade Policy: Proactively engaging in negotiations with the US to manage the impacts of tariffs and adjust the trade balance. This is an active diplomatic and trade effort to protect the interests of key sectors.
3. Accelerating Q₃ Momentum: Pushing for a strong start to the second half of the year to create a buffer and build growth momentum. This includes closely monitoring customs clearance at border gates to avoid congestion and ensure trade progress.

3.2. Market-Focused Initiatives: Deepening and Diversifying Export Channels

In addition to the general strategic framework, specific action plans for key markets have been developed, as detailed by officials like Mr. Ngo Hong Phong, Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development.[6], [13]

• For the US: The main strategy is negotiation and cost-sharing on tariffs to maintain market access for important sectors like seafood and wood.
• For China: The focus is on expanding official exports and actively working to meet new quality and traceability standards to regain momentum in the fruit and vegetable sector. This requires deep cooperation with Chinese authorities and providing clear guidance to Vietnamese producers.[6]
• For the EU: The top priority is to remove the IUU “yellow card”. Additionally, the strategy is to leverage the EVFTA to promote high-value products like processed seafood and specialty fruits.[6]
• For Japan & South Korea: The plan is to increase the share of deep-processed, high-value products that cater to the sophisticated tastes of consumers in these markets.[6]
• Market Diversification: A key element is to reduce over-reliance on a few major markets by actively developing new opportunities in the Middle East (Halal market), Africa, and South Asia.[9], [13]

3.3. The “Value over Volume” Imperative: Driving Growth through Processing and Quality

The foundation of the entire plan for the second half of the year is a long-term strategic shift. It is a transition from exporting raw commodities to becoming a global supplier of high-quality, processed agricultural products.

• Investment in Deep Processing: The government and industry associations are promoting stronger investment in processing facilities to increase the added value of exports.[13], [20] This is seen as the main path to sustainable growth, moving beyond dependence on volatile raw commodity prices.[21]
• Building a National Brand: A coordinated effort is needed to build the reputation and brand recognition of Vietnamese agricultural products on the international stage, moving from a generic supplier to a trusted source.[6]
• Technology and R&D: The plan calls for increased application of high technology in production, harvesting, and preservation to improve quality, reduce losses, and meet international standards.[6]

The strategy for the second half of 2025 includes both reactive measures (negotiating tariffs with the US, responding to new Chinese regulations) and proactive, long-term initiatives (building value chains, diversifying markets). The urgent, immediate tasks are reactive. The US tariff threat and Chinese regulations are external shocks that require an immediate response to prevent damage. The government’s focus on negotiation [6] reflects this. The more strategic, forward-looking elements—such as developing the Halal market [6], investing in processing [13], and brand building [6]—are proactive. They are designed to build resilience and create new growth drivers for the future. The success of the 2025 target depends heavily on the effectiveness of the *reactive* measures. The long-term health and growth of the industry depend on the implementation of the *proactive* measures. There is a risk that the urgency of short-term crises could divert resources and political capital from crucial long-term strategic investments. A key challenge for policymakers will be to “walk and chew gum at the same time”—effectively managing immediate threats while continuing to lay the foundation for a more resilient and higher-value export sector in the years to come.

4. Outlook and Recommendations for Vietnam’s Agricultural Export Market 2025

Synthesizing the analyses of performance, challenges, and strategies, this final section provides a forward-looking view and proposes specific, actionable recommendations for the key stakeholders in Vietnam’s Agricultural Export Market 2025.

4.1. Forecast and Scenario Analysis

• Base Case Scenario (Most Likely): The industry will navigate the challenges of the second half of the year, with strong results from coffee, seafood, and wood compensating for the weakness in rice and the slow recovery of fruits and vegetables. Year-end result: around $65-67 billion. This scenario assumes that the most severe US tariffs will be partially resolved or delayed, and the industry will gradually adapt to China’s new standards.
• Optimistic Scenario (Less Likely): Global commodity prices for coffee and other key exports remain at or above H₁ levels. The US tariff issue is resolved favorably, and there is a breakthrough in durian exports to China in Q₄. Year-end result: around $70 billion. This requires several external factors to turn in Vietnam’s favor.
• Pessimistic Scenario (Plausible): The US imposes heavy tariffs on seafood. China’s non-tariff barriers prove difficult to overcome, further reducing fruit exports. Coffee prices see a significant downward correction. Year-end result: below $65 billion.

4.2. Recommendations for Policymakers and Industry Associations

• Diplomacy and Trade Policy:
  • Accelerate High-Level Diplomatic Negotiations: Prioritize government-level talks with the US on seafood tariffs and with the EU on the IUU yellow card.
  • Establish a “Rapid Response” Technical Guidance Task Force: Create a joint body between the MAE and the Ministry of Industry and Trade to quickly analyze new technical regulations from markets like China and disseminate clear, actionable guidance to farmers and exporters.
• Infrastructure and Investment:
  • Launch a National Cold Chain Development Program: Provide preferential credit and incentives for private sector investment in cold storage and cold logistics, especially in key fruit-growing regions.[3]
  • Invest in Logistics Hubs: Support the development of specialized agricultural logistics hubs near borders and seaports to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

4.3. Recommendations for Exporting Enterprises

• Market Strategy:
  • Actively Pursue Market Diversification: Proactively allocate resources to explore and penetrate new markets such as the Middle East and South Asia to reduce dependence on the US and China.
  • Adopt a “China+” Strategy for High-Value Products: For fruits and vegetables, treat China as a high-standard market and simultaneously develop other premium markets (EU, Japan) to mitigate risk.
• Operational Excellence:
  • Invest in Processing and Traceability: Prioritize investment in deep processing technology to add value and in digital traceability systems to meet the requirements of all major markets.
  • Build Vertical Alliances: Forge stronger, more transparent relationships with agricultural cooperatives to ensure quality control, raw material supply, and compliance with international standards from the production stage.

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