The first half of 2025 presents a paradoxical picture for Vietnam\u2019s Agricultural Export Market 2025<\/strong>. On the surface, the industry achieved record-breaking figures, with an export turnover of 33.84 billion, a 15.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and an impressive trade surplus of 9.83 billion.[1]<\/a>, [2]<\/a> However, this impressive growth masks a deep divergence among different commodity sectors. The growth was primarily driven by a price boom in key products like coffee and cashews, concealing inherent weaknesses and serious challenges in other critical areas such as rice and fruits and vegetables.<\/p>\n The surge in value for coffee (up 67.5%) and cashews (up 20.4%) was the main driver, but this growth was based on a decline or negligible increase in volume, indicating a heavy reliance on global commodity price cycles.[3]<\/a>, [4]<\/a> In contrast, the rice industry faced a price crisis as the average export price plummeted by 18.4%, causing turnover to drop by 12.2% despite an increase in export volume.[4]<\/a> The fruit and vegetable sector also saw an 8.4% decline due to changes in import policies in the Chinese market.[3]<\/a>, [4]<\/a><\/p>\n Against this backdrop, the AFF sector faces a series of challenges in the second half of the year: the risk of the US imposing “overlapping tariffs” on key seafood products like shrimp [3]<\/a>; increasingly stringent technical barriers from China [3]<\/a>, [5]<\/a>; the unresolved IUU “yellow card” from the EU [6]<\/a>; and pressure from rising logistics costs and exchange rate fluctuations.[7]<\/a><\/p>\n In response, the Government and the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment have outlined a decisive action plan for the latter half of the year, aiming for a baseline export turnover of 65 billion and an ambitious target of 70 billion.[3]<\/a>, [6]<\/a>, [8]<\/a> This strategy focuses on three main pillars: stabilizing the supply chain, capitalizing on trade policy opportunities, and boosting exports from the beginning of the third quarter.[9]<\/a> Specific solutions include market diversification, enhancing added value through deep processing, and targeted policy interventions.<\/p>\n This report concludes that the 65 billion target is feasible but requires flawless execution of the strategy for the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the 70 billion target remains a significant challenge, heavily dependent on favorable external market conditions. The success of Vietnam\u2019s Agricultural Export Market 2025<\/strong> will not only be measured by the final turnover figure but also by its ability to transition from a growth model based on price and volume to a more sustainable one based on quality, technology, and added value.<\/p>\n A deep dive into the AFF export results for the first half of 2025 reveals a complex picture, where impressive macroeconomic achievements are built on an uneven foundation. Growth was not widespread across all commodity groups but was concentrated in a few sectors benefiting from specific market factors, while others struggled against significant headwinds.<\/p>\n At the macro level, Vietnam’s AFF sector had a particularly successful start to 2025, setting new records and making a significant contribution to national economic stability.<\/p>\n Total AFF export turnover in the first six months reached $33.84 billion<\/strong>, a strong growth of 15.5%<\/strong> compared to the same period in 2024.[1]<\/a>, [2]<\/a>, [4]<\/a> This figure indicates that the industry is on track to meet its ambitious goals for the year. This growth demonstrates not only resilience but also the sector’s ability to adapt to global economic fluctuations.<\/p>\n The most outstanding highlight was the industry’s trade surplus. With a surplus value of 9.83 billion<\/strong>, an increase of 16.5% year-on-year, the AFF sector continues to affirm its role as a crucial pillar for the national trade balance.1<\/sub>“>[1]<\/a> By the end of July, the surplus had reached 9.76 billion, exceeding the overall trade surplus of the entire economy.[7]<\/a> This not only brings in valuable foreign currency but also contributes to stabilizing the exchange rate and the macroeconomy.<\/p>\n The diversity of the export product portfolio is also noteworthy. In the first half of the year, 28 items achieved an export turnover of over 1 billion, accounting for 91.7% of the country’s total export turnover. Among them, 9 items exceeded 5 billion in exports, showcasing the depth and scale of Vietnam’s production and export capacity.[10]<\/a><\/p>\n A closer look at the aggregate numbers reveals a clear performance gap between commodity groups. The overall industry growth was not a tide that lifted all boats but rather the result of strong breakthroughs by a few sectors, while others faced difficulties.<\/p>\n High-Growth Group (Mainly Price-Driven):<\/strong> <\/p>\n Stable Growth Group:<\/strong> <\/p>\n Struggling Sectors:<\/strong> <\/p>\n This divergence reveals a core paradox: the impressive 15.5% growth of the entire sector is heavily dominated by the sharp price increases of coffee, cashews, and pepper. Without this price effect, the overall growth figure would be significantly lower. Sectors like rice and rubber actually saw a decline in export volume. This indicates that the current growth is not primarily driven by increased production or market share gains but is dependent on external commodity price cycles. This dependency creates a vulnerability. If the prices of these commodities correct downwards in the second half of 2025, the industry’s ability to achieve its ambitious targets will be severely impacted. Therefore, the long-term strategy of shifting from “increasing volume to enhancing value” [6]<\/a>, [13]<\/a> is not just a goal but an urgent requirement to mitigate the risk of export portfolio volatility from price fluctuations.<\/p>\n Table 1: Export Results of Key AFF Sectors (First 6 Months of 2025 vs. First 6 Months of 2024)<\/strong><\/p>\n1. Performance of Vietnam\u2019s Agricultural Export Market 2025 (H1<\/sub>)<\/h2>\n
1.1. Overall Achievements: A Record-Breaking Half-Year<\/h3>\n
1.2. In-depth Sector Analysis: Leaders and Laggards<\/h3>\n
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